The great analyst roll-up is on… who’ll step into the void?

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Touching_the_Void
So the "great analyst roll-up" is in full swing, with Gartner's announcement today to acquire another competitor, this time the 
Burton Group, for 56 big ones.  This comes hot on the heels of my former firm, AMR Research, also being acquired by Gartner.  I won't go into the details of the mechanics of these mergers, as you can read exhaustive commentary, debate and analysis over at Carter Lusher's blog.  However, I did want to discuss what this means to our sourcing industry.

Limited choice for alternative opinions.  As most of Gartner's competitors couldn't really compete on brand, they've had to differentiate themselves to survive, and that meant finding areas of coverage that Gartner didn't do (or do well), and having analysts on staff who weren't afraid to rock the apple-cart with edgy, sometimes controversial, opinion and research.  While Big G has picked up some superlative minds from its latest acquisitions, its new challenge is going to be maintaining those edgy opinions, and not having them toned down under the glossy corporate veneer of the billion-dollar brand.  Whichever way you look at this scenario, we simply have to have more than two analyst voices dominating the opinion and insight of our $850 billion sourcing industry.  Why?

Why we need more than two "big" analyst brands.  You have to hand it to the Big G.  It has dominated the industry for the past two decades, has a great brand, and its "Magic Quadrant" is the envy of all Gartner's competitors.  Even if you don't agree with all the placement and positioning, buyers make decisions off that thing, consultants use it to justify their recommendations, and vendors spend a fortune attempting to "influence" their analysts (or at least they like to think they do…).  I, personally, have developed much of my career as a competitor of Gartner, working for smaller analyst houses such as IDC and AMR.  Most of my clients were also clients of Gartner, and I found they liked to have that extra opinion / validation, and were usually happy to pay for it.  They didn't want all their eggs in one basket.  I found the analyst industry worked well with several smaller analyst firms operating in competitive harmony with the Big G. 

Now, with many of these firms are continually being absorbed under the one common brand, many of these customers are going to look further afield for alternative opinion.  They're buying and selling professional services to bring major change to their IT provision and business operations.  Sourcing decisions are among the hardest companies will ever have to make, with careers on the line and competitive survival at stake.  Having the right validation, advice and opinion has to come from more than one entity.

The new void is created, now who's going to fill it?  While Gartner's getting bigger and broader with even greather depth and coverage, the industry needs alternative voices to challenge the industry, to voice public opinion, to "out" poor practices and highlight best practices, warn unsuspecting customers, provide alternative vendor ratings and offer that extra layer of opinion.  Forrester's been their natural "big" competitor for sometime now, but the new void is where the edgy little upstarts used to be. 

Several of the sourcing advisors have been lending their own weight to generating opinions and some research (for example, Alsbridge, Equaterra, Everest and TPI).  They've all, to varying extents, found their voice in the sourcing ecosystem, with some unafraid to challenge the status quo, others preferring more staid, traditional research.  There are also other traditional research boutiques that have been around for a while, such as NelsonHall and Ovum (Datamonitor), which also have a unique opportunity to extend themselves into this void.  And there are some new-age analyst boutiques embracing blogs and social media, such as Altimeter Group, which could venture into the sourcing sphere to add their tuppence…

One thing's for sure, 2010 will be a pivotal year to see which of these firms will seize the moment and step into the void.  We'll just have to see who's going to up the ante…

Posted in : Business Process Outsourcing (BPO), Cloud Computing, IT Outsourcing / IT Services, Social Networking, Sourcing Best Practises

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New Year’s outsourcing resolutions for service providers

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Wouldn't it be refreshing if some outsourcing executives decided to try doing a few things differently this year?  Here are some suggestions…

Stop using the word "transformation".

Start trying to be different from the rest of the pack, or at least admit it if you're not really any different (but are probably cheaper, or have a sexier brand, or something).

Stop espousing that you will bring "innovation" to a finance function when you're just lumping the invoice processing offshore.

Stop claiming you're recent infrastructure management deal was a "cloud transformation".

In fact, stop using the word "transformation".

And please stop wheeling out your only client of note as an example of "innovation" and "best practice" when:

    1) You bought the deal in the first place,

    2) We've heard it 20 times before, and

    3) The client hates you anyway.

Stop claiming you do something, when you don't.

Stop claiming you can do something, when you can't.

Stop claiming ERP support is a "scarce expertise" that warrants a higher price-tag.

Stop copying your competitors' slideware.

Stop talking too much and actually listen.

Stop adopting other peoples' buzz phrases as your own.

Stop espousing that you will bring "transformation" to an HR function when you're just processing the payroll checks somewhere cheaper and using some limited piece of software that's only marginally better than the rubbish the client is currently using.

Start demonstrating how you actually did something unique with a client to help them be more efficient or generate more revenue.

Stop using the word "transformation".

Start being realistic.

Stop boring the living daylights out of everyone by tweeting all your press releases and thinking people actually will click on them.

And why not stop having meaningless meetings with sourcing advisors, when you're only going to talk about the same tired old deals everyone already knows about, and the client already knows who they're going to select in any case…

Hmmm… come to think of it, if everyone stuck to those, we probably wouldn't have an outsourcing industry anymore.  So please ignore and carry on regardless…

Happy New Year and Rock On 2010 -:)

 

Posted in : Absolutely Meaningless Comedy, Business Process Outsourcing (BPO), Cloud Computing, Confusing Outsourcing Information, Finance and Accounting, HR Outsourcing, IT Outsourcing / IT Services, Outsourcing Advisors, Social Networking

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…and the more serious moments of ’09

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Wooden horses_1 Wooden horses_2

And now we can finally put that year to bed, surely we can look forward to a more normal 2010.  Of course we can 😉

 

 

Here are some of the more serious moods and moments from a rather epic year in our industry…in chronologial order:

Satyam: It was like riding a tiger, not knowing how to get off without being eaten

Think before you fire: The cost of replacing IT talent

Forget 2006, let's go back to '96

Global business on a Knife-edge: Bonuses, H-1Bs and NaĂŻve Protectionism


Where should outsourcing vendors invest their marketing dollars in this climate?

Datamonitor goes to Hollywood

The politics of offshoring: all talk, no action

White water canoeing with Newt Gingrich

Why the lay-off culture is far more damaging than offshoring

Phil Fersht on service provider rankings: make the experts accountable, not faceless brands

Executive ADD: The disruptive scourge of social networks in the services industry

The next stage of industry development: Co-learning partnerships, not mega-mergers

Who's looking out for the US business these days?

Is this "2001 all over again" for outsourcing?

The entire Great Recession of 2008-2009: Blogged for the outsourcing industry

The future of the sourcing industry: DNA and industry knowledge trump scale

Crash and Learn: is TPI's "quartus horribilis" reflective of the sourcing industry at large?

Introducing new-age BPO: the standardization/personalization balance

Is this a good climate to take a career "risk"? Or is it riskier staying where you are?

The Dell finally tolls – but is this the right fit? 

Xerox copies Dell's example and acquires ACS, but again, where's the fit?

The art of blog: credibility is in the eye of the beholder

Forget Platform BPO, it's really about the Business Services Cloud (Part I)

Sitting on a shrinking business and afraid to change

Business and friendship: it's all about professional respect

Insecurity is the modern corporate disease

Can IT overcome its credibility crisis?

The "new normal" in the outsourcing delivery business

2010 Predictions for the Outsourcing Industry

Posted in : Business Process Outsourcing (BPO)

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The best of Horses in ’09… the funnies

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Will Ferrell in "Elf"  

And on a less serious note, here's the more amusing side to 2009…

Meaningful use of Twitter discovered

Obama to ban offshore outsourcing

India shows us how to innovate

Swine Flu can impact your service levels

Proof that you can stabilize your operations eventually…

It's all about hitting the ground running after you sign the contract

Remote Infrastructure Management anyone?

Getting to a point where you can lay in one place and not have to do anything ever…

Being middle-seated… all the way to Orlando

Payback can be sweet…

 

 

Posted in : Absolutely Meaningless Comedy

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2009 – the year of papering over cracks

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The Ice Bear ProjectMost people I speak to can't wait for 2009 to be put to bed.  People suddenly awoke to the realization that everything they have grafted so hard to achieve in their lives could be seized from them, because their economy had failed them. 

Like everything else in this world, we always wait until its too late before taking drastic action, and 2009 epitomized this reactionary mindset that dominates so much of our society.

However, I did want to sign off from 2009 with a dose of realism… fancy phrases such as "New Normal", or "Preparing for the Recovery" only wash when they attempt to address the question: "How the blimming heck can we radically change our attitudes and actions to save our children from economic and environmental disaster".


But what really gets my goat is that we keep on making the same mistakes over, and over, and over again.  One can only hope that the lessons of this year will have broader ramifications than simply learning how to bail out banks and save our stock market from total collapse.  Somehow I doubt it; 2009 was just the beginning of the realization that our short-term mentality has to change, but we will – alas – likely need to endure another bout of pain and hardship before we'll eventually do something about it.  We got off too easy this time and somehow managed to paper over some pretty cavernous cracks.

For example, the same "boom/bust" cycle seems to be kicking back in.  Wall St. realized it was too important to fail, and the taxpayer footed the bill.  Now it's starting all over again… the stock market is rising despite uncertain economic conditions and continual rising unemployment.  The environment continues to be destroyed and our governments can only (again) paper over the cracks.  We've never seen a global response to saving our wealth like this, so why can't we do something to save our world for our children?  It seems that as soon as we stabilize our stock market and our house valuations, all is well in the world again.

Many of you will recall the emotional rhetoric from earlier in the year when there were calls for fundamental change.  There was a sudden realization that this time it was too late… the cracks were too wide to cover… they were becoming as wide as the growing distances polar bears need to swim to find food.  Like the polar bear, many of us thought that this time we would start drowning without sight of dry land. 

However, our children's' tax burden has saved the day - they have paid for the excesses of today, while we can go on doing things as we were before. All this talk of a New Economy.  All sounds good, but without a real change in attitude and a focus on curing long-term ills, we won't really change.  We just keep papering over the cracks.

However, some good did come out of all this.  For the first time, world leaders came together and acted quickly to salvage a potential disaster.  They now know our collective fates, both economically and environmentally, are intertwined.  And they should now have worked out better ways to get things done in the future. 

While it's likely going to entail more pain, at least we've made some progress at dealing with global issues.  Our businesses are now global, our economies international, so now at least our problems are global too… let's cling to the hope that 2009 marked a turning-point in how we stop papering over cracks and start rebuilding a more robust infrastructure where cracks won't keep appearing and getting wider and wider…

The picture above represents an ice sculpture from the Ice Bear Project - a polar bear sculpted out of ice, with a bronze skeleton inside.  This was created in Kongens Nytorv Square, Copenhagen, Denmark, close to where nearly 20,000 people attended the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) during December.

Posted in : Business Process Outsourcing (BPO)

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Come to Jersey City in January

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Jersey City

Have you ever had such an irresistible request?  Well… here's your chance to tour the exquisite delights of the picturesque tree-lined New York suburb, with its manicured lawns, fine eateries and state-of-the-art museums, where you can enjoy the famous hospitality of the jovial, friendly local folk who'll make you feel right at home, shrouded in luxury and fine local culture. 

However, sight-seeing in paradise, drenched in lovely winter sunshine, isn't all you can look forward to during this visit of a lifetime… you can also make a sneaky detour to the Global Services Conference, where you can mingle with the hoi-polloi of the services and outsourcing industry, at Jersey City's sumptuous Hyatt Regency hotel on 28-29 January.

GSC-2010And if you enjoyed last years affair, this one promises even more.  "Even more?" I hear you ask…  yes – even more.  Included in this year's line up are Juia Santos, who heads WW outsourcing strategy for J&J, the lovely Linda Tuck Chapman, my boyhood hero Jay Whitehead (yes – he's back!) and some crazy blogger unveiling the survey results from the New Normal in Outsourcing Delivery Survey of more then 1000 key executives in the outsourcing industry.

Anyway, readers of the Horses can enjoy their usual discount by registering at the following link and inputting the discount code "HFSSPL" in the box that says "source code" :

CLICK HERE TO REGISTER FOR THE 2010 GLOBAL SERVICES CONFERENCE

I look forward to meeting many of you here in January 28th…

Posted in : Outsourcing Events

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Getting a bit of Ruest (Part I)

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Sebastien Ruest Ruest If there was a Nobel Prize for industry analysts, this guy walks away with it – he's super cool, talks a good game, and has done very little beyond, well, be super-cool and super-smart… and with a French accent to boot.  So today, I thought we'd give IDC's Sebastien Ruest the chance to prove there's a bit more substance behind the snowboarding, hockey-stick-wielding playboy façade 🙂

Sebastien's proving IDC's nearshore model by leading it's global services research from Canada, and developing a solid reputation in the industry as one of the industry analysts who "gets it".  So I thought it time to grab a few minutes with the dude himself…

Phil Fersht: Sebastien, firstly, what are the main issues you’re hearing from your clients these days? What are the main contrasts between now and before the economic crash last year?

Sebastien Ruest: Maybe it is the cynic in me but I don't think the economic crisis has affected or changed what the main issues are inside organizations. I think the economic crisis was the equivalent of a worldwide game of musical chair where the music has been on "pause" for 9 months and participants have been in state of suspended animation, waiting for the music to start again. The business logic is no different, but I think this time around the jukebox have fewer songs. I think the contrast this time is that CEO/CFO are less willing to fund long term projects have a immediate and visible impact on the organizations and I think that projects like Mobility or E-Workplaces or Enterprise Wide ERP, have been the most impacted by this attitude.

Phil Fersht: What’s “shiny and new” in the services world now we’re finally coming out of recession, or has a lot of the sexiness been drained from the industry, and it’s all about cost-containment these days? What glimmers of light do you see on the horizon that can get us excited again?

Sebastien Ruest: I have been talking to many companies since January about their IT & Business Priorities and an interesting thing that comes out of this is that: besides cost containment, being the number one priority, the focus of many is the improvement in asset utilization or Portfolio rationalization. And this new philosophy, driven by Business leaders, is impacting both IT & Business Services. Why is optimization so important? Because they are still plenty of older technologies in place inside organizations layered together in spaghetti like fashion and although they are stable, they are not optimized for competing in the emerging business climate. Fix them first, before you suggest upgrading. We could call this new approach "Techno-MacGyver". On the other hand, Business leaders are facing this "Crisis of Complexity " with the proliferation of devices, applications, connections points, etc. Optimization becomes really important for them in order to deal with the emergence of "newish" technologies and business models (such as Cloud Computing or Web 15.0) and the ongoing presence of older, established technologies that are not easily displaced or replaced.

Phil Fersht: I was an analyst until the recent past, and my biggest frustration from many of the service providers, was that several were struggling to say anything different. It was as if a script had been developed on what to offer and how to sell it, and there was no leeway to do anything different
 only a few seemed capable of setting themselves apart. Is anything different happening in this post-recessionary market? Do you see the “men being separated from the boys” in the coming months?

Sebastien Ruest: Yes and no. First, there has been this weird dichotomy that Service providers have had to deal with. On the one hand, the economic crisis gave everyone with some buying or sustains power the ability to displace weaker players or the ability to acquire skills and capabilities that were not previously financially available. We have seen it between Dell and Perot, Xerox and ACS, moving up the Services value chain and numerous others within specific regional or industry niches. But will that be the pay off? The dichotomy is that do you spend to gain, or do you cut/save to survive?

I think that in the coming months will be critical for players with limited portfolios, Unless many more projects get funded, players that are not migrating their portfolios away from traditional outsourcing, or from Fixed T&M and toward the componentized delivery models that break down services into smaller, shorter and more manageable contracts, we may see the consolidation of many more players.

Sebastien Ruest (pictured) is responsible for leading IDC's global research in the Services & Technology marketplace.   He also heads IDC's IT service benchmark practice and works with vendors and IT users to measure the efficiencies and cost-effectiveness of service delivery. Prior to joining IDC, Mr. Ruest had close to 10 years experience in corporate strategy, sales & marketing and research at IBM.

Join us for Part II where Sebasten shares his vision for Cloud computing and how it will become integral to the services and outsourcing industry.

Posted in : Business Process Outsourcing (BPO), Cloud Computing, IT Outsourcing / IT Services, Outsourcing Heros

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Mystery Governance Predictions

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VRemember our mystery blogger who evangelizes on best practices for vendor management?  Well that mysterious individual has challenged me to a predictions dual this morning (gasp), where he /she said "I'd be willing to wager a drink on who gets a higher percentage right.  After all, I didn't bet on England in the World Cup, so I'm pretty optimistic :)"  We'll see about that sunshine…

In any case, our friend has come up with some pretty eye-catching and profound statements, for example:

"After testing outsourcing’s shallow waters, companies new to outsourcing will cliff dive into the deep end without further investment in governance, only to find that pool parties should be supervised by a lifeguard and that the pool is more shallow than they think."

Agree 100%

"Allow me to coin a new term, Vendor Management Organization Outsourcing (VMOO), which also has an easy to pronounce verb version: to “vmoo” or “vmooing.” In 2010, the big outsourcing companies, like Accenture and IBM, will begin to market VMOO solutions. They will explain the incompetence of vendor management organizations (which, I have argued, should not exist), link this incompetence to it’s competitor’s performance, and build the case for managing other vendors for companies. In 2010, someone with a moderately complex, underperforming vendor portfolio will will outsource their VMO – leaving a vendor to manage their vendors and clients. The skeptics will call it a lobotomy."

Hmmm… not too sure about this one.  While it could make sense, most sourcing executives will prefer to remain in control of a messy multi-sourced relationship than offload to another party and admit they're struggling.  Might start to happen more in 2011 when some CFOs wise up to the fact that their sourcing managers aren't doing the job well enough.

Cloud computing is at its hype cycle zenith. However, for non-core processes, it simply makes sense. HRO, FAO, and Procurement are all prime areas for cloud computing. Companies struggling with justifying capital expense related to purchasing and customizing these systems will seek solace in cloud computing models and vendors in this space will begin to provide software as part of their solution.

Financial systems in most companies simply have to extract too much legacy back-end data to make this financially viable - although it's a great concept.  Think it may take more time than a year, but it's definitely the future.  HR and procurement?  For standard apps such as payroll and indirect procurement, most definitely.

Anyway, thanks mystery person for taking the time to share your views, especially when noone knows who you are -:)

Posted in : Cloud Computing, Finance and Accounting, HR Outsourcing, Sourcing Best Practises

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Simply Lowell (Part II)

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Lowell_Williams So here's the eagerly-awaited second part of the Lowell Williams experience, where we decided to give him 30 minutes of fame. Over to Equattera's HRO mega-star with the handbrake firmly in the off position…

Phil Fersht: Lowell, we’ve had a lot of talk on here about “Platform BPO”, where clients essentially take on a standard SaaS-delivered platform, supported by business processing services delivered by a BPO provider. How do you view these “on-demand” business services? Isn’t this just a win-win for the software providers, with limited value for the BPO provider? How can service providers differentiate their offerings in this type of model?

Lowell Williams: As mentioned above, many HR and IT executives


can no longer justify large capital outlays for classic license and install platforms, nor are they willing to commit the operating capital to maintain such systems. A number of smaller, more flexible, and less ready to customize providers is already discernible in this market space, such as Workday, Northgate-Arinso, Caliber Point and recently” Xercs” (our temporary trade name for the combination of Xerox and ACS). For SaaS to work, however, client companies need to realize that customizations will not be possible to any great degree. SaaS is a truly one-to-many model, and the burden of all customizations will fall back on the client company. In addition, allowing any substantial customization or personalization will degrade the cost curve and performance as well. Not all companies can accept that reality. Embedded in many of our HRIT systems today are routines and programs that we believe give us competitive advantages in employee treatment. If we are going to make SaaS work on a wide scale, we will have to find a way to take those custom elements out of the HRIT system. The largest pure SaaS model today is Workday, and it has just over 100 customers, many of which are not in transition to full service yet, so we have a very long way to go on SaaS. We are also a long way off from being able to compare the Total Cost of Ownership of a classic platform such as SAP with an SaaS model provided by SAP.

Phil Fersht: Are clients getting better at governing BPO these days, or are you seeing them making the same mistakes over and over again? Can service providers do more to help their clients govern sourcing engagements better?

Lowell Williams: Generally clients are refining their approaches to governance, although many of them still try to scale a model that was appropriate for the governance of a health or savings plan to a large scale HRO transaction involving multiple countries. Not enough clients use appropriate toolsets, and thus the client team gets bogged down in building spreadsheets and crunching data rather than automating that function and concentrating on structural trends and major developments in building better relationships. The early promise of best practice flow through outsourcing is still a largely unrealized ambition. While some best practices are actively promoted by the industry, those practice improvements tend to be what is beneficial to the provider’s margins or cost structure. There is very little convergence of academic HR work on best practices and improvements with providers or their clients. For instance, I can only name one or two HRO providers that have a functioning advisory council on HR best practices, and we are missing a major opportunity to develop truly grounded, researched and articulated HR practice appropriate for an outsourced or shared service HR environment. Best practices are as much as a part of governance and relationship management as costs and service level performance. If providers truly want to be partners, governance has to become more about a better mutual mousetrap than about reporting on call center statistics.

Phil Fersht: And finally, what’s next in this strange world of outsourcing? What do you see happening in the next decade? And how will the economic crisis change executive thinking with global sourcing in the long-haul?

Lowell Williams: The new Flat Earth Society will become the dominant mindset. We will have to globalize the sourcing of talent as the OECD nations face the retirement or partial retirement of the Boomers. Visa practices, cross cultural training and learning to segment work tasks around the globe are the dominant themes of the next years in HR services, and for that matter in finance, IT and procurement services. Work flow must be globalized, and the race will be to those companies that master best performance for best price in serving themselves and their customers. You asked earlier about legal service outsourcing. Why should we pay to draft patent claims in Washington, DC when we can get the same services in Cape Town at 1/3 the price? Why should be use actuarial services in Chicago for our pensions when we can buy better services in Kiev or Hyderabad and for a better price? Our corporate production and growth engines must use better work flow, better task sourcing and smarter global sourcing models to direct work to service centers that reflect best site/best service/best practice and best value As executives look to their competitive future, this crash has reminded them that competition for mindshare and walletshare is never-ending, and they must retool their organizations to compete though astute sourcing and shared services on a global basis.

Phil Fersht: Thanks for your time, Lowell. Everyone here will love reading your views.

Lowell Williams (pictured above) brings 30 years of international HR, HRO and HRIT expertise to his role as EquaTerra’s executive director for global HR services. Before joining EquaTerra at its inception, Lowell was an HRO executive at TPI, executive director at Exult, vice president for global HR at Bull Information Systems, and senior vice president and general counsel at Elf Aquitaine. He is very engaged in economic and labor policy, active in religious affairs and local community.

Posted in : Business Process Outsourcing (BPO), HR Outsourcing, HR Strategy, Outsourcing Advisors, Outsourcing Heros, SaaS, PaaS, IaaS and BPaaS, Sourcing Best Practises

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2010 Predictions for the Outsourcing Industry

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The Future Firstly: my apologies to everyone for hopping on the perennial "Predictions Bandwagon".  One may as well say "Stop press everyone, I'm just such an important smarty-pants you should listen to ME ME ME!"  As Newt Gingrich told us earlier this year:  "There is not one living being that can accurately predict the outcome of this crisis, all we can do is continue the dialog and the answers will slowly unravel". 

Secondly:  we've conducted two major studies with outsourcing buyers globally this year (and am currently sifting through 800 responses – and counting - from our current industry study).  While we can evangelize, prophecize, pontificate and sermonize, nothing can substitute for real data on what everyone is currently doing and planning to do.  We have the platform here to do that, and I personally thank all of you who took a little time out to share their views, actions and intentions.

And Thirdly: I'm just such an important smarty-pants you should listen to ME ME ME!"  So maybe I can help with the unraveling?

i) CIOs and CFOs will be uniquely challenged to avoid becoming "Cartoons of the Recession". 

Simply put, when there's a serious recession in the works, the job of the CIO is relatively simple – cut costs and squeeze your suppliers using whatever means are at your disposal.  CIOs rarely get fired in this scenario, unless they somehow messed up the cost-cutting. 


Their real challenge is when we emerge from the recession; the spotlight is firmly on them to deliver value.  They are, quite literally, drowning in options, and it's a major challenge to convince their peers they are capable of driving new business value into the organization.  CFOs will be similarly challenged by the fact that they are going to have to prioritize investments versus cost-containment initiatives, exacerbated by the realization we're moving into a period of drawn-out economic uncertainty, and not the classic economic recovery-cycle.  Their options are as tough, if not tougher in this "New Normal".  Outsourcing is one key component to help crystallize these options – driving out cost, while creating new avenues of possibility.  The CIOs and CFOs who "get" sourcing will be in the driving seat.

ii) Labor arbitrage will continue to dominate outsourcing, but the smart providers will be focused on providing consultative value to their clients. 

Most new outsourcing contracts are still dominated by customers which have got lots more room for maneuver with labor arbitrage.  Sadly, this will continue to dominate most of the deals in 2010, and we'll see the tiresome cost-per-FTE price battle continue. 

When you consider that 75% of service provider staff for ERP development and support are still onshore, there's a lot more wiggle-room for new and existing clients to cut costs through lifting-and-shifting work offshore.  With commodity services areas such as ERP software development and maintenance, and transactional accounting processing, it's getting harder and harder for service providers to command higher price-tags in this New Normal. 

Those providers proving operationally-efficient and cost-competitive to win this labor arbitrage work today, will find themselves in a strong position to push higher-end business transformational services in the future, because they will already be present within clients delivering operational work.  They need to demonstrate they are capable of learning their clients' businesses, in order to move up the value chain to take on more consultative work.   Those providers which only focus on providing cheap body-shopping for commodity services, will get usurped from the market quite quickly.  Worst still, not many of the leading providers are likely to acquire competitors which only have a transactional skill-set and low-value client relationships.

iii) Sourcing advisors will increase their influence in the market. 

As the analyst business consolidates, many business leaders are looking further afield for inspiration, validation, data and advice.  Especially in the sourcing world, where the best advice is often coming from those living the experience in the field.  Our forthcoming survey results will reveal this is happening.  Business decision-makers today need advice that can be made available in personalized models from experts that can deliver it.  The smart advisors are going to be those which can adapt and scale their experienced talent seccessfully in a semi-customizable model.

iv) We'll see at least two mega-mergers among the service provider-base. 

 We'll see a couple more mergers on a similar-scale to Dell/Perot and Xerox/ACS.  Expect at least one involving a traditional incumbent and an Indian-HQ-ed service provider, and at least one other between one of the pure-play BPOs and an IT-centric services provider.

v) BPO will rebound to have its strongest-ever year. 

2009's been a somewhat damp-squibb for mega-BPO deals, and while we've seen a lot of small-engagements and a few captive buy-outs, a lot of BPO decisions were delayed due to the crisis.  As expected, ITO's been the first to emerge strongly from the recession, as this is the most mature market where deals are transacted fairly quickly today.  However, for many companies, especially those which have already outsourced much of their IT, the next wave of obvious cost-savings are to be found in BPO areas. 

UnravelAs our soon-to-be released new survey is revealing, transactional finance and accounting BPO will have a resurgence in 2010, with additional interest in management reporting, and we'll also see a fresh wave or HR outsourcing, which has been quiet for a couple of years now, with new uptake in payroll, benefits admin and recruiting outsourcing.  Procure-to-pay outsourcing is poised to accelerate, but we are unlikely to see muchrenewed traction in strategic sourcing services.  We'll also see renewed focus in the analytics space across several verticals and horizontal areas.

vi) Cloud will emerge, but its definition and concept will get diluted and confused. 

Yes, Cloud is the future and a major game-changer, but - like everything else in the IT world - the definition and meaning will get diluted and confused (remember SOA, EAI, CRM, E-business etc etc).  The winners in this game will be those providers which can articulate exactly what Cloud means and how companies can start evaluating Cloud-based delivery models.  Cloud will become closely intertwined with outsourcing,  and we're already seeing many service providers developing their Cloud-strategies.

vii) The speed of change will become frantic and frightening for many.  

While in the good ol' pre-crisis days, firms could take time over major (and sometimes disruptive) business decisions, companies today are having to make them much more quickly, and move much more aggressively to execute on them.  This is particularly relevant where outsourcing is concerned. 

As we've seen in the past few months, many of those sourcing decisions that were delayed during the first half of the year, quickly came to fruition recently, as firms realized economic armageddon has been averted, and it's time to roll-out the new corporate agenda: quickly and aggressively.  2010 will not be a year for the timid, and we'll have a lot of frantic people trying to grapple with outsourcing - we'll see more political pressure, more negativity, more case-studies, more value propositions, more momentum and more energy  than we've seen yet in this crazy industry.

viii) And finally… 

I predict England will win the 2010 World Cup.  Now you know how accurate I am -:)

 

Posted in : Business Process Outsourcing (BPO), Captives and Shared Services Strategies, Cloud Computing, Finance and Accounting, HR Outsourcing, IT Outsourcing / IT Services, Outsourcing Advisors, Procurement and Supply Chain, SaaS, PaaS, IaaS and BPaaS, Sourcing Best Practises

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