2019 Prediction: Brexit will be abolished and the UK economy will roar back to life

December 07, 2018 | Phil Fersht

I am not normally one for big grandiose predictions - I'm actually pretty dull when it comes to big hyperbole (I hope). 

Honestly, I'd love to declare that AI will destroy a third of the workforce, and then magically perform a 360-degree flip and start creating jobs.  I'd also love to declare that RPA vendors will magically infuse Machine Learning into their apps to produce AI magic.  Because AI is magic, didn't you know? I'd love to declare that software is eating the world... and then declare that it actually won't, because a lot of it is actually pretty crap.  I'd also love to declare that Blockchain will radically impact the entire business ecosystem to such an extent I can prognosticate all these business cases with so many holes in them, I might as well start lauding the transformational capabilities of emmental. 

However, there is one big bold prediction I am prepared to make:  Brexit will be dead in the water in a few weeks

I am an analyst, I explore every permutation of almost anything that impacts economies, business, societies until I drive myself mad.  I also work with other half-crazy analysts who do the same.  Just take a gander at our recent analysis of the hazardous implications of Brexit on the UK economy

So why is Brexit headed for the scrap heap?

It was always an "all in" or "all out".  We did neither.  Seriously, we should have just drawn the guillotine on the EU right after the 2016 referendum, arranged a sensible withdrawal that could be governed effectively and transparently. We should have taken the pain then, and we'd probably be OK right now.  Hell, we'd probably be part of NAFTA introducing delicious microwaved fish and chip pub luncheons to the Mexis and some actual real beer to the Canadians.  And we may even finally get decent burritos introduced to the streets of London and poutine finally replacing soggy chips n' curry sauce. Instead, we dithered, argued, bored ourselves silly arguing until no-one could quite remember what we were doing in the first place.  Instead, we got to see close hand how indecisive, and stupid so many politicians are, how most of these people only care about their self-interests than any actual deep-driven mission or purpose.  We also had many chances to think "Why are we doing this again?  None of our businesses are happy, the Irish are freaking out, the Scots are ready to bolt, so we'll only be left with, er, Wales (and even they are making noises)".  And Mr Trump even thinks it was a bad deal... and he was great in the apprentice, so it must really suck.  

Brexit is a massive Catch-22. You can't just compromise on an issue like this, even though 48% rejected it.  There just isn't any point in doing half-measures with Brexit - both scenarios suck.  The diluted mess Theresa May has served up basically ensures we only get half-screwed by the experience.  We are still tied to the EU, the Irish are still freaking out, we will close our borders in any case, but noone will want to come here anyway, because our economy will stink. In fact, most of the EU immigrant workers will probably flock to Dublin to work in the call centers after the banks have shifted over there... There really isn't a compromise when the issues are this black and white.

The only current scenario is 'no-deal disaster' or 'go back to the people to make a decision'.  Let's get to the point - the "deal" on the table is a plethora of half-measures with little upside for anyone.  So that leaves only one Brexit option:  no-deal and an economic calamity. There is no way 52% of the British folks care that much about putting a middle finger up at Brussels to destroy their livelihoods. When May's deal fails next week, she will really only have one choice - to go back to the people to decide.  And we only need a 3% swing from that heady warm June 2016 evening to fix this calamity.  I occasionally like a bet, and this is one I'd throw a few pounds at...

The Bottom-Line: Parliament will throw this out and the British public will reject a no-deal Brexit... So Auf Wiedersehen Brexit

Firstly, there is no way MPs will vote for the current "soft-Brexit" deal on the table next week.  May must know this too - and will simply go straight to the people to finalize this issue once and for all.  There is no renegotiation with Brussels - that is clear, and there isn't enough time, in any case, with the deadline being 29th March 2019.  Secondly, Calling a general election with Brexit looming so close would be madness. There are now only two real options:

1) A "Hard no-deal Brexit"

2) No Brexit

So there will be a second referendum and it will swing for option 2.  That won't be the end of the matter, as a groveling "take us back" negotiation will take place, but the EU leaders all know they need Britain back to keep the EU strong - and this will drive Putin mad (who would love nothing more than a weakened EU).  Trump liked Brexit for similar economic reasons of weakening Brussels' power, but the US relies on a strong Britain as its gateway to Europe, and may now prefer an EU including the UK than one without.

There will also be considerable public fall-out as half the country did vote "leave" and they will feel betrayed by shambolic politicians.  However, a "deal" was never going to be done and a transition organized in two short years - May was always on a hiding-to-nothing, and the only real takeaway is that referendums on complex issues never work.  You know who loved referendums? One A Hitler... when information was easily controlled and the public easily brainwashed.  In today's age of hyper-connected everything, you simply can't control anything!

Posted in: Policy and Regulations

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1 Comments

8 Comments

  1. Graham Hart
    Posted Dec 07, 2018 12:10 PM | Permalink Reply

    Bold, brave prediciton - and you may well have nailed the course of events coming up! I hope Theresa May dose not call an immediate general election, as this Brexit issue need resolution first.

  2. Alan
    Posted Dec 08, 2018 09:42 AM | Permalink Reply

    May may resign after losing the vote and the whole process could be in utter shambles. The UK may be headed for a disastrous hard Brexit.

  3. Jagadish Raghavendra
    Posted Dec 07, 2018 01:42 PM | Permalink Reply

    According to this recent YouGov poll, ~600 constituencies prefer to remain. You may well be proven right, @Phil Fersht https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/12/06/mays-brexit-deal-leads-just-two-constituencies-it-

  4. R C Joshi
    Posted Dec 11, 2018 10:06 AM | Permalink Reply

    I had stated this earlier in another forum in 2016 and would repeat . We as humans started living in smaller groups and as the technology improved , the area of influence of individuals increased and we started forming villages , states, counties and countries etc . In last 100 years or so, the technology has leap leapfrogged, hence the area of influence of individuals and organizations is border less. But the political systems and the concept of "sovereign countries " remain . It is high time that these "countries" surrender some powers and create a world body or government if I may call so, similar to a federal structure, this is in best interest of humanity sooner the better, EU , NAFTA, ASEAN etc are path to that ultimate destination and way ahead ..

  5. Dave Nattriss
    Posted Jan 13, 2019 01:53 AM | Permalink Reply

    Do remember that just 26.7% of UK residents voted to leave the EU in 2016. There was no mandate to take it any further.

  6. Ron
    Posted Feb 14, 2019 12:38 AM | Permalink Reply

    Nothing disastrous about a Hard Brexit. We keep our money, Deal with the Europeans on WTO rules, are totally free of any EU Input into our affairs, regain our Fisheries, Trade with the entire World including it largest economies without problems, and put Britons back to work in manufacturing industries rather than service industries. So what problems ?

  7. gerry canning
    Posted May 15, 2019 05:56 AM | Permalink Reply

    Ron , 1.If you check WTO terms are not good for trade. 2.Keep your money ? doubtful if amount kept (which is small in scheme of things) covers the cost of setting up new trade patterns . 3.Totally free of EU input , that is technically true BUT if you want to trade with EU ie 50% of your trade ,it would need @ least an alignment with EU Rules in order to trade . 4.Mr Obama was clear that the smaller UK would come behind the larger EU in trade talks ,so (trade without problems) is unlikely . 5 . UK is a SERVICE economy (and very good @it) and unless manufacturing can compete with other countries on Manufacturing , more Britons will either be out of work or have low paid work .

  8. Peak armundsen
    Posted May 25, 2019 05:34 AM | Permalink Reply

    RC Joshi you are totally right in your analysis it's the aquarian age, which stands for group conscious, group relationships and group synthesis. Brexit is anti the incoming new age aquarian structure ( note the power of the internet as a vehicle for informing the foundations of the aquarian age - velocity of speed of communication between people's round the world - Facebook, twitter etc are all the initial channels of aquarian energy distribution) .

    Gerry you are also very correct in your brief assessment. The brexiteers have relied on the lack of rigourous analysis by 90% of the leave voters and also the huge mendacity of their arguments in promoting the dishonest and totally destructive leave agenda. The major backers of leave are not focused on what is best for Uk citizens. They are concerned about removing the minimum or living wage, removing key protections of workers rights, controlling and monopolising key commercial sectors in order to squeeze the poor workers even further.

    Leave voters in already poeverty stricken parts of the uk should check to see exactly how much money the multi millionaire Brexit MP's have actually invested in their region. The answer ? ZERO ZERO ZERO. They don't care about the very citizens who they are using to drive their avaricious agenda. But the poor leavers are unaware of their true agenda. When they do find out it will be too late

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