Highly-respected writer Tomas Pueyo conducts a bone-chilling analysis on the speed of Coronavirus spread if we don’t act now. Just observing the cases in China show how rapidly the virus stopped spreading as soon as it was locked down. These were his conclusions:
Let’s examine some of the data highlights from his research – all based on real-time data being reported in the virus spread. Firstly, see how quickly the number of cases in Hubei Province declines once the government implemented its lockdown:
Pueyo goes on to perform some data modeling to show how sensitive every single day can be when implementing social distancing:
The Bottom-Line: Social distancing policies reduce the exponential spread to the most vulnerable
In short, we need to buy time to make sure the elderly and young people do not catch this. The data from Taiwan already shows how effective social distancing and travel restrictions can be if implemented immediately as the country currently has the lowest incidence rate per capita. The broad data set from Hubei clearly tells us that, although the government acted late, its impact on decreasing the spread was massive.
While most businesses in our industry must be commended for enforcing swift travel restrictions and events cancellations, the same cannot be said for many governments which seem to be adopting more of a “wait and see” policy. Will we regret not acting swiftly enough? Only time will tell…
Posted in : policy-and-regulations