Monthly Archives: Jan 2019

Time to tune in to Tapati!

January 25, 2019 | Phil Fersht

It's not everyday you can find a prolific industry expert, living and breathing AI and IT services, who wants to return to the analyst industry to make her mark.  So when a former Gartner legend - and one of the brains behind the market development of Wipro Holmes - was eyeing a return to the analyst fold, we didn't need too much encouragement when Tapati Bandopadhyay came calling...

Phil Fersht (CEO, HFS Research): Welcome Tapati! Can you share a little about your background and why you have chosen research and strategy as your career path?

Tapati Bandopadhyay (VP Research, HFS Research): First of all, thanks for giving me this opportunity Phil, to get back to my favorite world of analysts and research, in a firm that can make any enthusiastic 40+ feel like a 20 something again!

I have been a nerd all my life, and very proudly so. I wrote my first year PhD exams when my girls were 2 and 1-year old and I used to study for the exams from 12 to 4 at night and loved every moment of it. Even now, I cannot get sleep if I don’t read at least 20 pages of something completely new, something to anticipate and to be excited about when I wake up the next morning!

In last ten years I have probably taken the Strength-Finder 2.0 test at least three times, and each time my top two strengths remained exactly the same: Futuristic and Analytical. I think I am destined to be a research analyst and strategist! The upside of it has two key aspects: 1- analysts are future-makers, if we don’t push the real to the imaginary and back, the art of the possible is not likely to transform into the science of the real anytime soon; and 2- in addition to being future-proof and creatively bot-proof, analysts’ jobs are also recession-proof, as we can apply our analytical skills to find cheaper ways to do things with same or even better quality.

What are the areas and topics that you’re focusing on in your analyst role with us?

AI is my area of strength and there’s so much going on currently that I think we in the research and analyst world have a great responsibility right now, to clear up the clutter and let people focus on what’s real vs. what’s plain hype. Never losing sight of the Big Picture is becoming increasingly difficult in this technology-blurred world of “AI-defined everything”. While I love all the math models and algorithms and routinely devour new research papers in areas like deep belief nets, XAI, NLG, or imagination augmented AI, ultimately we have to keep it simple and human-centric. Only then all this technology hullabaloo will start making real business sense.

AI and IoT are highly connected, especially with 5G becoming mainstream in 2020 and even 6G at the works to come in by 2025-2028. Therefore I will be quite actively tracking the IoT space, chasing Nicola Tesla’s 1926 dream of creating a world-wide human-machine combined brain, which will become real when we achieve the next level of HFS OneOffice- the hyperconnected intelligent enterprise.

Talking about Things, I will cover the manufacturing and industry 4.0 research agenda too. I have always loved machines- be it those mammoth hydraulic presses at the Tata Motors truck factory, or the precision drilling machines at GEC Marine Glasgow. Manufacturing is truly the parent industry where tangible economic value gets generated with the land-labour-capital inputs. Only, the labour is now the ‘phygital’ workforce- with smart machines augmenting our quality of work and productivity, while freeing us up from loads of hazardous or boring tasks. That’s where AI, IoT and industry 4.0 connect beautifully in my mind-map, creating a simulated digital twin of the physical machine-world.

What trends and developments are capturing your attention today in technology and business operations?

I take what Andrew Ng said about data being the new oil, to data becoming the new glue, the invisible ‘ether’, the collective grey matter of the world. In sync with what you envision about the next OneOffice becoming ubiquitous in a hyperconnected world, the data oligopolies that we all know to exist today will come crashing down. We have already seen this happening just as the entry barriers to AI algorithms went down with the cloud-based pay-as-you-go models, and the entry barriers to top talent got broken in an open world of millennials comfortable in crowdsourcing. Now, with machine learning itself becoming partially autonomous, with unsupervised learning in a limited way and then with AutoML, human learning will also have to undergo transformation, where enterprises will learn from each other’s data, intelligence, experiments, experience, and thrive in a fairly co-opetitive world of frenemies where ultimately mankind and the unsuspecting individual, wins.

Is the analyst industry much different now than when you were at Gartner a few years ago? What is changing in your opinion, Tapati?

I think the analysts in this agile, new-age, ‘open research’ side of the world, are far more than mere subject matter experts. We are bolder, actionable and direct, hands-on folks, been-there-done-that type, and I love it. We are also listening better, to build our perspectives from a 360 standpoint. Not just technology, not just business, but the ability to cover all aspects, keeping the end-customers at the centre. Because, whatever be the industry or technology, if the end-customer is not impacted, nothing else matters.

So I see three key changes: 1- the idea of open research and collective intelligence, given that even IBM and Microsoft have now become proponents of open models; 2- the cognitive agility- to think fast and slow as the situation demands, and 3- to be direct, actionable and relevant with a holistic perspective – keeping the end-customers at the centre of any value universe.

So, Tapati, what are you working on first for our clients?

I am planning to cover the practical aspects of applied enterprise AI, as I have experienced this freshly and first-hand and have learned a lot. I have some very strong views and counter-views, on how these AI algorithms and their applications will pan out in the immediate and intermediate future, and the subsequent to-do’s. We will have to stay ahead of the curve. Hence I plan to share these as predictions and actions kind of PoV’s. I will also be covering the IoT and industry 4.0 with our India team along with the global team.

And given I have the locational advantage of being based out of India- the services factory of the world, and especially in Bangalore- world’s no. 2 silicon valley, I will work with a lot of tech start-up’s and service providers on their AI and automation initiatives, and IoT and manufacturing vertical practices.

And, what do you do with your spare time (if you have any...)?

Oh, I have to try very hard to play the cognitive catch-up game with my three children - my teenage girls and our 3-year old German Shepherd – named after our most fav physicist Dr. Feynman, we most humbly accept the fact that he is the smartest in the family.

I love to read physics books and fictions by the likes of Archer and Grisham, but I get constantly rebuked by my girls on not reading enough. Therefore I always try the easier way of asking them questions and then listening to every word of wisdom that they have internalized, post reading the tough non-fictions.

I also love to paint and play Indian music on the piano. And I love to cook for our friends and family. So next time any of you are in Bangalore, you have to come prepared. It’s a statutory warning- there’s no getting away from my unique cuisine while you’re here!

Welcome to HfS, Tapati. Delighted you have chosen us as your analytical home and can't wait to see those first pieces of insight to hit the press =)

Tapati Bandopadhyay (pictured above) joins HFS research to lead our India research operations and expand coverage of AI and IT services.  You can read her bio here.

Posted in: None

2

1 Comments

No-Deal Brexit isn't just a British problem: This could wipe $15 trillion off global markets

January 19, 2019 | Phil FershtJamie SnowdonOllie O’Donoghue

In 2008 Lehman Brothers nearly took down the global banking system... in 2017 Greece's debts were poised to destroy the European economy... today, we are staring at a stock market that gyrates up and down double-digit percentages in a single day, based on one awkward tariff tweet-up between Xi and Donald...

We're talking about the world's 5th largest economy going into immediate meltdown.  This is more than a UK-only debacle

So... who cares about the world's 5th largest economy potentially plummeting into a complete meltdown? Let's just have a good giggle at those idiotic British politicians hell-bent on destroying the country over a referendum staged 2.5 years ago on a topic no-one actually understands.  Yeah, let's not worry as they'll be screwed, and we can all make Brit-jokes at parties as those idiots run out of medical supplies and are forced to import frozen butterball turkeys pumped full of Ractopramine and several other GMOs... yum.

Here's the bad news - Lehman and Greece are small-time when you consider the potential damage a complete Brexit failure will cause, if - as it possible - the UK government paralyzes itself and lets its economy degenerate into a warzone of regulation chaos, complete data disaster, supply chain meltdown and political purgatory.  While we have boldly - and positively - predicted (see earlier post) that Brexit won't actually happen, there is also the distinct possibility that Brexit and no-Brexit blindly meander into the nothingness of a "No-Deal" scenario.

We have predicted that - at the end of the day - politicians are surely not that selfish, and voters really aren't that stupid to allow their country to descend into complete economic and social chaos... and madness.  But that's because we, at HFS, have assumed a modicum of intelligence does exist in the world. But, we could be sadly naïve.  However, there is some hope - and that hope is the simple fact that if we Brits commit the ultimate harakiri of a No-Deal Brexit, we take the rest of the global economy down with us.  You thought Lehman Bros was bad?  You've seen nothing yet folks.

Why this could be a $15 trillion global decimation

If we look at similar shocks to the stock market over the last century, it takes relatively little to create a major downturn in global asset values. We don’t need to look too far back this decade to see how even a moderate dip on global stock markets cans seriously impact the health of the economy.

If we look at the Asian financial crisis in 1997, for example, we can see just how quickly the collapse of even a relatively small economy can wipe off a huge percentage of global stock values. If we look at the potential consequences of not only one of the world’s largest economies, but one tightly integrated with the global economy, it’s not hard to see how much of an impact this could have on the major stock exchanges. That’s not to mention the major role the UK currently plays in global finance – with some estimates advising that the City of London manages over $9 trillion in assets, three times the size of UK GDP.

In a no-deal scenario, almost overnight the UK will no longer be compliant with EU rules and regulations – of which the previously discussed GDPR is just one of. There are countless other regulations that have formed part of the business environment of the United Kingdom, Europe, and by extension, the rest of the global economy, that are likely to emerge during the real-time stress testing that a no-deal crash out will lead to.

We can simulate (with the same degree of absolutely no certainty characteristic of the Brexit process) a major tumble in global stock prices by examining how previous shocks to the market have impacted in the past. And it’s worth noting, that our estimates are generally very conservative compared to other financial crises over the past century.

In the following illustration, we can see how some significant impacts to the value of stock markets can play out – particularly in areas most likely to be impacted by Brexit. In this simulation, we can expect the value of the twenty largest stock markets to drop by $14.9 trillion as a result of the major market shock of no-deal Brexit.

 

Click to Enlarge 

Bottom Line: A no-deal Brexit has far-reaching consequences, and could knock chunks of value from global stock markets to send us crashing into a serious economic depression

The warnings about the implications of no longer being compliant with GDPR are chicken-feed compared to the true global impact of allowing Britain to hive itself off from the EU with no insulation from the multiple disastrous consequences. In the past, major financial crises have been caused simply from a much smaller and less integrated economy defaulting on debts, now we’re facing the very real prospect that one of the world’s largest economies will wake up one morning with a completely different rule book, and much more red-tape and bureaucracy between it and the rest of the world. It’s not hyperbolic to say, the consequences to the global economy could be huge.

In a sick way, maybe this No-Deal scenario is what we all deserve to open the eyes of the politicians and gullible voters of the world for losing their grip on reality.  Maybe a period of poverty and hardship will knock us into shape to prepare for the next chapter of economic and political life.  

Ugh - we seriously hope it doesn't take a crisis of these immense proportions for everyone to wake up to the world we are shaping, where facts are merely tools to shape opinions and this sense of entitlement that so many people possess is threatening to destroy everything we've worked so hard to create.

There never was a "Brexit deal".  Brexit was all about pissed off working class people (mainly older folks) sticking it to the rich and to "foreign" people they saw 'stealing' jobs (they were never going to do themselves in any case).  So the only "Brexit" these people wanted was to ruin the economy for the wealthy British middle class and to stop immigrants coming into the country (and kicking out the existing ones too).  This is why the situation is such as mess.  The real motives behind Brexit are not the ones being discussed in Parliament or in Brussels.  It's a mess and needs to be somehow reset so the real debate can take place.  Otherwise this never ends.  

We all agree at HFS that change can be good, and we must embrace change... but changing to what?  That is the issue right now - what is wrong with the current system and what is the ideal system we need to move to...  and its not only the UK grappling with this problem...

Posted in: Policy and Regulations

0

0 Comments

Accenture, IBM, Capgemini and Wipro lead the first application services Top 10

January 14, 2019 | Phil FershtJamie SnowdonOllie O’Donoghue

So it's now 2019, and HFS' Ollie O'Donoghue and Jamie Snowdon waste no time in the world of the new feisty Top 10 methodology, where they take no prisoners in ranking how the leading application development and management service providers performed...

The market continues to test and experiment with new frameworks and methodologies. The most notable are DevOps and agile, which are now widely adopted by many of the major IT service providers. Providers are implementing sweeping training and culture redevelopment programs to adopt best practices to support innovation and delivery in the application services space.

Now more than ever, enterprises are looking for providers to help them rationalize and optimize their technology stack, of which business applications is a significant component. In their drive toward the Digital OneOffice, forward-thinking enterprises are engaging with providers that can build innovative solutions that can integrate and unite business applications and in the process break down business siloes.

Given the importance of technology and business applications, enterprises are looking for collaborative partners that are invested in their success. As a result, we’re seeing an increasing reliance on existing relationships to deliver on fresh engagements.

Service providers are also working tirelessly to ensure they are making the most of their talent—driving training and retraining programs to help keep employees’ skillsets up to speed in a changing market.

So let's see how the leading ten service provider shake out, based on interviews with 300 enterprise clients of IT services from the Global 2000 in which we asked specific questions pertaining to innovation and execution performance of service providers assessed. The research is augmented with information collected in Q1 and Q2 2018 through provider RFIs, structured briefings, client reference interviews, and from publicly available information sources:

Click to view full 22 service provider assessment

 

Key Research Highlights 

Developing talent. Providers are working hard to develop talent internally through retraining programs and bring in the right people by building out innovative talent attraction processes.

Building out partnerships. Providers are developing broader and deeper partnerships to support the increased demand from enterprises for a diverse and complex ecosystem.

Blurring service lines. Traditional service lines, particularly infrastructure and applications, are coming under more pressure as enterprises show less willingness to differentiate between siloes when designing an engagement.

Investment in capability.  Many providers are building out their capability through acquisition of innovative start-ups and boutiques, as well as some major investments in the acquisition or merging of major providers and ISVs already operating in the space.

Q&A with Report Author, Ollie O'Donoghue

"Are the partners who got us here the ones to take us to the next place?"

This is always a tough question to answer, particularly in the application services space where the scope of projects is getting larger and encompassing far more technologies. To thrive in this market there is no perfect route – we see firms like IBM bolster capabilities through acquisition (RedHat being the largest), while firms such as DXC and Accenture pull in capability through partnerships, and the major IT outsourcers try to build up skills and talent organically. At its core, this is to meet the needs of an evolving buyer community that expects the best solutions from a complex array of technologies and practices.

So, what we’re seeing is a large section of the provider community fight to stay relevant in a rapidly changing market. Honestly, we can expect to see some casualties, there’s just too much to specialise in for some providers to keep pace with, and many are spread too thin to become real specialists. The future in this space belongs to those who can keep layering valuable interfaces between a growing technology stack that includes advanced automation capabilities. For some, this will be through becoming a jack-of-all-trades, and for others, it will be through unique specialisms – all who are in between are vulnerable.

Which of this bunch are going to break out of the pack, based on your recent conversations?

As we’ve mentioned, there's a lot of movement across the leading service providers – but there are four or five that have a lot more going on than many of the others. Let’s start with IBM, which already has scale and differentiation in the space, but has jumped ahead of the pack in open source through the mammoth acquisition of RedHat. We also have Accenture which continues to be synonymous with innovation and bringing high-quality solutions to clients. The firm has also plugged in more digital design and apps agencies into its service lines in recent years, adding more brains and brawn to the rapidly growing market.

It’s also worth highlighting Wipro, which has a strengthening reputation in the application services market – strengthened by the firm’s big bets in digital. This part of the IT services market has always been the core of Wipro’s business, so the firm is able to pull in experience and skills that other firms still need time to develop. We also have Infosys which, with fresh leadership, has started to take the services game seriously again. The firm has done a lot of work to retrain talent and redevelop its strategy. Jumping on the developing push for onshore and nearshore, Infosys is also building out delivery centres, particularly in the US with plans for more work in Europe. Finally, Capgemini and TCS are gaining ground. The former through capturing more mindshare in Europe for its IT Services heft and expertise – a potential gold mine as businesses grapple with geopolitical pressures and look to local technology experts to help them. And the Latter for pushing a fresh narrative on the need for technology in the modern enterprise through its Business 4.0 thought leadership.

As a last note, HCL presents somewhat of a quandary to us since its purchase of IBM assets. It’s difficult to see the acquisition of somewhat legacy assets as a route to breaking out of the pack, but the reality is this could be a platform on to a broader customer base for HCL. All in all, though, we’re holding judgement until the firm has a clearer strategy for the assets.

Are there any niche firms popping up who can disrupt this space?

It’s a tough market for smaller firms to play in, but for specialists who can corner the market or disrupt business models, there’s plenty of room for manoeuvre. This is the first major IT Services analysis where we’ve included some of the mid-tier players where a lot of the innovation is taking place – simply because these firms have to try much harder to fend off the majors whether that’s the flexibility and agility of Mphasis or the vertical specialism of LTI.

There are even smaller players starting to challenge in the space – nClouds, an HFS Hot Vendor is an excellent example of a small firm with a compelling track-record in the market, particularly when helping enterprises shift applications and services to the cloud. There’s a vast amount of space opening up for players in the ‘small and cool’ category – the acquisition of RedHat leaves behind a massive gap in independent open source and there is a large portion of the community disillusioned by the acquisition that could be a huge boon to the right company. And with several mid-tier players hoovered up by the majors – notably Syntel and Luxoft - there are gaps in the market waiting to be filled by agile firms.

So, Ollie, which emerging apps services firms are worth keeping an eye out for?

nClouds – In many ways, nClouds is the definition of a company thriving from the increasing blend of application and infrastructure. The firm leverages practices and technologies such as DevOps, Containerization, and public cloud to help clients evolve their technology stack. We were so impressed by client feedback from this firm that they made their way into the first HFS Hot Vendors at the start of 2018.

Trianz – While not necessarily a niche player, Trianz has proven itself more than capable of taking on much larger firms to win deals. The firm has a broad range of services, but its edge seems to be the agility and flexibility it can bring to engagements. The firm has won multiple awards and seems to be benefiting from increased enterprise appetite to diversify engagements amongst many small players, rather than one giant one.

Linium – (acquired by Ness Digital Engineering) – For specialisation, we need to look no further than Linium which has worked tirelessly to carve out chunks of the enterprise service management space. The firm has dedicated practices for core business platforms such as ServiceNow, as well as capabilities in custom application development. The firm was acquired by Ness Digital Engineering in 2018 – bringing with it broader capabilities and access to talent, as well as access to a broader pool of clients.

GAVS Tech– When we covered Gavs Tech in our Q3 Hot Vendors, we concentrated on their zero-incident framework, an approach to reduce the impact of IT issues on end-users. But the firm has used the mantra across other service lines in the space, including a pay as you go DevOps models that focus on deploying reliable application code and resources. The DevOps platform provides an integrated solution for application development, testing, deployment, scaling and monitoring – not only offering improved speed and quality, but also a degree of simplicity in a complex technology environment.

Bottom-Line: Increasingly scarce talent, combined with a never-ending demand, places real pressure on service providers to keep innovating their delivery models

Simply put, the modern application services market is now so complex it’s not possible to be an expert in everything. Providers are beginning to recognize this and continue to bring in partners to support their delivery capabilities while retraining staff to move them into higher value work.

At the center of this changing market lies a huge question mark around talent. Enterprises are telling us that there are major talent crunches in key areas of the market and for some applications, which is forcing them to push more work over to providers. The challenge is that many of these providers are facing similar challenges. All of the IT services providers assessed in this research have extensive retaining and retraining programs in place to ensure they get the most out of their teams. They’re also partnering up with major sources of talent, particularly higher education institutions.

Nevertheless, the market is showing no signs of slowing down to allow providers any breathing space. Enterprise applications are now a major focus area for CIOs and technology leaders to get right. They need help writing off legacy, making sense of extensive technology estates, and finding areas of opportunity for new services and solutions.

Premium HFS subscribers can click here to download their copy of HFS Top 10 Application Development and Management Services 2018

Posted in: IT Outsourcing / IT ServicesDigital OneOffice

0

0 Comments