{"id":4053,"date":"2018-02-04T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2018-02-04T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/localhost\/projects\/horsesforsources\/jobs-impact-automation_083017\/"},"modified":"2021-12-03T06:08:09","modified_gmt":"2021-12-03T06:08:09","slug":"jobs-impact-automation_083017","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.horsesforsources.com\/jobs-impact-automation_083017\/","title":{"rendered":"Automation to impact 750,000 low skilled Indian jobs, but create 300,000 mid-high skilled jobs by 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"

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A lot has changed in the last year… especially when it comes to automation: it has now become the broadly-accepted\u00a0efficiency tool for cost leverage with operations.<\/p>\n

Every customer has RPA\u00a0project managers and automation\u00a0leads hungry for data, advice, and ideas. Every service provider has RPA embedded into their service delivery models, and every credible\u00a0advisor\u00a0has a practice that is working with multiple clients to make this happen. The Armageddon days<\/a><\/em> of talking about robots taking our jobs are over – these are now the reality days<\/em> where we can see exactly what’s going on with automation and AI, and accurately estimate how it’s going to impact the services industry in the next few years.<\/p>\n

There will be impact, but it’s manageable provided we focus on new skills and value. \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

In short, the global IT and BPO services industry employs\u00a016 million workers today. \u00a0By 2022, our industry will employ 14.8 million – a likely decrease of 7.5%* in total workers (see our research methodology below). \u00a0This isn’t devastating news – we’ll lose this many people through natural attrition, but what this data signifies is this industry is now delivering more for less<\/em> because of advantages in automation and artificial\u00a0intelligence. \u00a0The new data also shows how job roles are evolving from\u00a0low skilled workers conducting simple entry level, process driven tasks that require little abstract thinking or autonomy, to medium and high skilled workers undertaking more complicated tasks that require experience, expertise, abstract thinking, ability to manage\u00a0machine-learning tools and autonomy.<\/p>\n

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The low skill routine jobs are getting increasingly impacted, and our new demand data shows an acceleration in RPA\u00a0tools (a 60% increase over the next year) where service providers are the largest adopters into their own service delivery organizations. \u00a0We expect to see a more rapid impact on routine job roles which is most notable in 2022 as companies take time to build the impact of RPA into service contracts and figure out how to turn work elimination into hard savings than merely soft efficiency savings. \u00a0With barely a 50% satisfaction level, this will take 4-5 years to see the real cost benefits in terms of job elimination. \u00a0Most of the short-medium term benefits are being seen in increased efficiencies and more digital process\u00a0workflows. \u00a0All major service delivery locations are expected to be impacted at the low-end, but the higher the wage costs, the higher the expected role elimination (750,000 roles in India and a similar number in the US):<\/p>\n

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Medium skilled roles are picking up across the board, especially in roles that are customer\/employee\u00a0facing with the need for more customized support, the ability to handle basic customer and data queries, and more customized service work with virtual agent models in 2nd \/ 3rd tier escalations:<\/p>\n

\"HfS<\/p>\n

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When we look into the high-end, this is where we see most positive impact, in terms of job creation:<\/p>\n

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As this data illustrates, the more we automate and digitize, and the more we adopt human + machine technologies, such as machine learning and cognitive solutions, the more we need people to developing skills in managing automated workflows, machine learning mechanisms, being able to interpret data, and service increasingly complex customer and employee needs. So when we take into account the total impact of automation and AI on services jobs, the impact is not nearly as severe as so many of the hypesters\u00a0and fear-mongerers are prophesizing:<\/p>\n

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Philippines should actually increase its service delivery population due to its dominance in voice and capabilities to support increasingly complex and personalized customer models, the UK should be flat, especially with the challenges of Brexit\u00a0and the slowdown in low cost worker immigration, while both India and the US will see a total worker reduction estimated at the 10% level between by 2022. \u00a0You can view the total impact on the global services industry – a worker population decline of 7.5% here:<\/p>\n

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The Bottom-line: The rote jobs are going to be eroded, but there is time on our side to develop the new skills we need<\/span><\/p>\n

The big narrative here isn’t about what’s going away, but more about what is emerging in its place. The next fives years we can manage, it’s the five after that<\/em>\u00a0when the impact on labor becomes much more challenging. \u00a0Transaction roles at the bottom of the value chain have been under threat for many years now – with the impact of low cost location delivery and better technology. \u00a0Now the emergence of RPA\u00a0is eventually going to sound the death knell for most high-throughput, high-intensity jobs, as both service providers and enterprises master the ability to apply these technologies effectively. \u00a0The good news is this takes time and there is no huge burning platform to do this\u00a0overnight from most enterprises.\u00a0<\/p>\n

So our message to all stakeholders on operations and services is simply to get out of your comfort zones, accept that new skills are replacing\u00a0old ones, and it’s critical we have a plan to train, develop and invest in changing what we have. \u00a0I will leave you with six things to think about as you ponder your own value to this industry and your firm:<\/p>\n

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  1. Which customers have you delighted recently?<\/li>\n
  2. What new relationships have you made that add value to our business?<\/li>\n
  3. What work have you done that excited people inside and outside of the business?<\/li>\n
  4. How are you helping energize your colleagues and exciting them with new ideas?<\/li>\n
  5. How have you helped add value to new business wins?<\/li>\n
  6. How have you contributed to new initiatives that improve productivity and effectiveness?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    HfS\u00a0subscribers can access the full report by clicking here<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

    *Research Methodology<\/span><\/p>\n

    HfS\u00a0has taken the following assumptions to form this size and forecast for the services industry:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    A more aggressive uptake of RPA and Autonomic plus adoption of Cognitive in second half 2017
    Leading stakeholders start to educate the market more realistically
    The adoption of RPA, RDA,\u00a0Cognitive Computing and AI reaches exponential growth
    Visibility on impact through details in financial earnings calls and beyond
    Stronger impact on supply-side, more marginal on buy-side
    30% Reskilling to medium and high skilled jobs,\u00a0with 2\/3rd to medium and 1\/3 to high<\/p>\n

    HfS\u00a0bases its data findings on the following sources:<\/strong><\/p>\n