{"id":2448,"date":"2020-01-05T00:30:00","date_gmt":"2020-01-05T00:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/localhost\/projects\/horsesforsources\/hfspredictions2020_010620\/"},"modified":"2021-12-09T11:11:44","modified_gmt":"2021-12-09T11:11:44","slug":"hfspredictions2020_010620","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.horsesforsources.com\/hfspredictions2020_010620\/","title":{"rendered":"HFS predictions for 2020. Oh lord, not more… but you know you’ll read them anyway"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Lord, do we hate predictions.\u00a0 But as analysts we get treated like robots sometimes and are expected to churn them out like some pre-defined analyst chatbot algorithms.\u00a0 So, in robotic fashion, here is a splurge of stuff we think could well happen from the HFS\u00a0analyst\u00a0team\u2026<\/p>\n
1) The consequences of taking out Soleimani may make all the following predictions moot<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
This really matters. Just as we were hoping for another year of investor money sloshing everywhere trying to find a meaningful\u00a0home, the trigger we were dreading that sparks a dramatic\u00a0finale to this unprecedented\u00a011 years of economic growth may just have been pulled.<\/p>\n
Iran’s regime there has little to lose, with its economy in tatters, being reliant on Russian and Chinese imports, it’s people close to desperation. But this is no Venezuela, North Korea or Iraq that can be pushed around at whim… this is a country with a 500,000 strong army now united in this act of war.\u00a0\u00a0Iranians for and against the current regime have now united in their desire NOT to have outsiders determine their fate. More dangerously, pro-Iranian and anti-Iranian factions in Iraq who were fighting each other are now bonded together in their one desire that America not decide their fate and get out. ISIS grew out of Iraq the last time we stepped away, and I fear what will grow this time. If intelligence exists that showed an attack was imminent, this needs to be shared now to break this blind unity the US move created. The main point is that the middle east, particularly Israel, Europe and the US are all less safe than they were 3 days ago. We need to learn from the messes we have created in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan that if there is not a viable<\/em> option to form a government backed by the people and the military, then military conflict leads to a situation of less stability<\/em> for the world – not more.<\/p>\n
We must also not underestimate Iran’s cyber-terrorism capabilities – we know they’ve been throwing money at it. They also have good links with North Korea and Russia – both experts at using it (they are also looking to grow their empires in the region, so it’s possible they will lend a hand). Iran knows it couldn’t win a conventional conflict with the west – it will look to fight their war in a way that means it doesn’t risk invasion. We think they will follow in the footsteps of North Korea and look to inflict financial damage, with sophisticated attacks, which will likely further come in combination with the small raiding boats that will look to target shipping.\u00a0 Of course, this may well lead to a ground invasion in any case if the US (and any allies) decide to go for regime-change.<\/p>\n
Net-net a major global downturn, which is a likely outcome from a messy widescale\u00a0conflict where oil prices rocket, confidence tanks and our digital lives get violated, will have a huge impact<\/em> on how enterprises decide technology and\u00a0people investments.\u00a0 We’re not even sure many businesses will know how to handle<\/em> a rapid downturn and simply fold.\u00a0 The global economy sits on the precipice right now as geopolitics and other political agendas dictate behaviours that could have a savage threat on the health of the world… let’s pray this all gets resolved quickly.<\/p>\n
2) The Rise of Process Orchestration will fill the void RPA never really filled<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
2019 marked the year the 7 year RPA hype journey hit a major roadblock after UiPath\u2019s $8m Vegas party culminated in half the firm getting canned the following week.\u00a0 What was left was the void of promise unfulfilled<\/em> and a market that needed urgent redefinition and a new manifesto.\u00a0 Almost going unnoticed was the iconic process mining firm Celonis raising a colossal $290m series C finding round and Automation Anywhere raking in $290m as part of its series B, notably with Salesforce dabbling in the investment.\u00a0 \u201cWhy is this different?\u201d, I hear you cry\u2026 well, the discussion noticeably switched to end-to-end process and workflow optimization rather than the whole \u201cbot for every desktop\u201d nonsense.\u00a0 RPA was even touted as \u201cbridging the gap between front and back offices\u201d by Automation Anywhere\u2026 clearly a message to excite its new romance with Salesforce and an effort to steer the conversation into more a meaningful, realistic place.<\/p>\n
2020 will see a new narrative emerge as smart enterprises explore a broader tool box of process discovery, process mining, process automation and data ingestion to help them orchestrate<\/em> true end-to-end processes that actually bring an enterprise\u2019s customers, employees and suppliers closer together.<\/p>\n
3) The OneOffice\u00a0progression will bring customer and employee ‘human’ experiences much closer together<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
We\u2019ve droned on for years now about \u201cBringing the front and back offices closer together\u201d.\u00a0 2020 will see this narrative move beyond nice graphics and a narrative that makes back-office people feel more customer-centric, with the focus shifting to enterprises driving an employee experience<\/em> similar to that of their customers.\u00a0 This entails the use of digital associates for internal needs in addition to \u201chumanizing\u201d digital customer interactions.\u00a0 Customer\u00a0Experience (CX) will increasingly be considered an umbrella term for the experience interacting with an entire organization, whether it\u2019s the customer, partner, employee or any other entity:<\/p>\n