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Category Archives: Sourcing Locations

Automation Impact: India's services industry workforce to shrink 480,000 by 2021 - a decline of 14%

July 04, 2016 | Phil Fersht

Last week (see post) we revealed the true impact of the emergence of Intelligent Automation on the global industry of 15 million IT services and BPO workers, revealing a net decrease of 9% and ~1.4 million jobs.  

The HfS future workforce impact model predicts the likely impact of the most recent wave of automation on the IT Services and BPO industry. We estimate that the current total IT Service and BPO industry employs c15 million in 2015, with ~3.5 million in India, ~1 million in Philippines, ~5 million in North America and ~4 million in Europe. 

The workers within the worldwide industry have been divided into 3 categories: low skilled, medium skilled and high skilled. Low skilled workers conduct simple entry level, process driven tasks that require little abstract thinking or autonomy. Medium-to-High level workers undertake more complicated tasks that require experience, complex problem solving, ability to learn on-the-job and to work autonomously. The model then applies underlying growth rates for each category linked to market growth. Each scenario has a different set of parameters that will impact each level of worker setting out likely degree of automation for each group and the probability that the job will be automated and in what time frame this is likely to happen. You can read a fuller description of our methodology for our future workforce impact model here.

The low-skilled United States and Indian services workforces are most impacted 

So what does this look like when we drill down to the country levels of the main global delivery locations:  UK, US, India and Philippines?  Let's start with the low-skilled positions, greatest at risk from robotic process automation (RPA): 

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As the graphic illustrates, India is set to lose 640,000 and the US 770,000 low-skilled positions by 2021 - these are decreases of 28% and 33% respectively. This is largely because there are a large number of non-customer facing roles at the low-skill level in these countries, when you take into account the amount of back office processing and IT support work that are likely to be automated and consolidated across a smaller number of workers.  On the flip side,

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Posted in: Cognitive ComputingRobotic Process AutomationSourcing Locations

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There's a whole generation with a new explanation... in San Francisco

February 25, 2016 | Phil Fersht

Get ready! We're Coming to San Francisco!

sf-email-headerYou may have heard we just announced our first-ever Working Summit for Buyers in San Francisco at the St. Regis Hotel May 26th - 27th. The summit's theme—Vision 2020 for Intelligent Operations—brings together the IT and business process services industry's brightest minds and stakeholders. Seats are limited and available at no cost to well-qualified senior buyers. So, if you are interested, pencil us in your calendar and apply for a seat now.

Unvarnished Discussion Sessions

  • The State of the As-a-Service Economy and Intelligent Operations: Is It Here?
  • Evolution or Revolution: What does the Future really Look Like?
  • The Current State of Intelligent Automation – what’s working and what’s not for buyers
  • Service Automation: Robots and the Future of Work
  • The Digitization of the Finance Function
  • Co-inventing for the As-a-Service Economy
  • Hiring for As-a-Service Skills and the Role HR must play in the As-a-Service Economy
  • The evolution of Omni-Channel for CRM: What is it really, and does is exist?
  • Analytics and Big Data in the As-a-Service Economy… what’s really coming next?
  • Getting ahead of Trust and Security in the As-a-Service Economy
  • The C-Suite Advisor – Buyer Face/Off
  • The C-Suite Service Provider Shootout

Apply-Now-Button-Email

Featured Discussion Leaders

  • Mary Lacity, Curators’ Professor, University of Missouri
  • Lee Coulter, CEO Shared Services, Ascension Health
  • Allison Sagraves, Chief Data Officer, M&T Bank
  • Phil Fersht, CEO HfS Research
  • Carol Britton, CPO, Bank of New York Mellon
  • Charlie Aird, Global Leader, PwC Shared Services and Outsourcing advisory
  • Chip Wagner, CEO Alsbridge
  • Dave Brown, Global Lead, Shared Service & Outsourcing Advisory at KPMG
  • Dennis Howlett, Co-Founder, Diginomica
  • Dilip Vellodi, Chairman and CEO, Sutherland Global Services
  • Jay Desai, Senior Director, Enterprise Outsourcing, AbbVie
  • Gajen Kandiah, Executive Vice President and General Manager Cognizant Digital Works and Business Process Services
  • Harry Wallaesa, CEO, The W Group
  • Jesus Mantas, Head of Global Business Services, IBM
  • Joe Frampus, Partner, Avasant
  • Kevin McDonald, VP of BPO Governance, The E.W. Scripps Company
  • Leslie Willcocks, Professor, Workforce and Globalization, London School of Economics
  • Mark Voytek, Partner, Ernst and Young
  • Michael Corcoran, Head of Strategy, Accenture Operations
  • Pradip Khemani, Head of Global Business Services, Blue Shield of California
  • Scott Furlong, Partner, ISG
  • Shantanu Ghosh, SVP & Global Head – CFO & Transformation Services, Genpact
  • Srinidhi Rao, Head – Service Management and Process Excellence, Juniper Networks
  • Tony Filippone, Senior Vice President, Outsourcing Management, AXIS Capital
  • Robin Rasmussen, Partner, HR SSOA KPMG
  • Vishal Sikka, CEO Infosys
  • Wesley Bryan, Co-Founder, OneSource Virtual

Apply-Now-Button-EmailHfS Analysts

As usual, we'll have a full contingent of HfS analysts on site to present the latest data and stimulate discussions. In San Francisco, we'll have Phil Fersht, Charles Sutherland, Barbra McGann, Fred McClimans, Melissa O’Brien and Reetika Joshi.

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Posted in: Business Process Outsourcing (BPO)Captives and Shared Services StrategiesCloud Computing

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The jobs aren't "going away" - they've already pretty much gone

February 20, 2016 | Phil Fersht

Robo factoryOh boy - the amount of fantastical claims we are being spoon-fed by some experts in the market today is just getting a bit absurd:

The beauty of all these wild predictions is that few will remember who made them in a couple of years - or the fact they were made at all.  That's the beauty of being an analyst/visionary in today's market - you can make up any old fantastical crap and never be held accountable for it in the future.  (Not that I have ever been guilty of said behaviour...)

Most of these claims are moot, as most of these "jobs" have already been automated away, or moved offshore

Let's dissect this quickly:

Rote B2B sales and customer service jobs have already gone away.  Forrester's jaw-dropping prediction is a simple case of analysts predicting things that have already happened to create some headline noise. Most B2B transactional customer service tasks have already been automated, or at least offshored.  I'm sorry, but I can barely think of a single instance where I have spoken to a customer service rep, except some instances when I needed to make a large purchase, or I had an inquiry so unique, there was no way to automate it. And even when I do need to talk to someone, I often get scripted responses from some rep in India or the Philippines - my recent complaint

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Posted in: Business Process Outsourcing (BPO)Buyers' Sourcing Best PracticesCognitive Computing

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The Nasscom 2016 report: The era of unsettlement is upon us

February 14, 2016 | Phil Fersht

Last week, the HfS Leadership team went all in on the 2016 NASSCOM Industry Leadership Forum (ILF) in Mumbai with 4 presentations and panels, dozens of meetings with industry leaders from providers and clients, multiple media interviews and local delivery center visits thrown in for good measure.  So myself and Charles Sutherland jotted down our thoughts as we fought off the lurking jet-lag demons on our way back to the States yesterday...

Troubled CatMost refreshing this time around, has been the toning down of the rhetoric and hype, as most of the providers tackle the winds of change threatening a worrying decline of growth in the global services industry.

From this year's proceedings, we have taken to heart the near ubiquitous discussion of “Digital enablement and Disruption” to construct a sentiment analysis of where the stakeholders in ILF currently find themselves in their transition from a world of legacy operations to delivering what HfS has termed the “As-a-Service Economy”.

From enthused to unsettled, service providers sober up as reality sets in

In a word, we felt the sentiment of the ILF sessions in 2016 is best described as the global IT services industry being “unsettled”.   Last year, we saw the pervasive adoption of “Digital” as the driver of future growth for every service provider at ILF, with a different definition in every instance as to what it meant. The ILF sentiment in 2015 was “enthusiastic” in a word.   Over the the course of the past year, we believe most of the service providers are awakening to the degree of change necessary to move to a new model that delivers Digital value based on technical capable offerings, untethered to huge incremental headcount investments.

While seeing some early client successes, most smart service providers are also questioning whether each is as differentiated in their capability and messaging as they believed a year ago. It is becoming abundantly clear, as the industry wakes up to the reality of what is really needed to evolve to the As-a-Service economy, that the differentiation points between service providers has become blurred - and being able to demonstrate true distinctiveness and differentiation from each other has become a very difficult task.

If in 2015, every service provider at ILF wanted to brief HfS on the excellence of their Digital offerings, in 2016 the conversations were inquiries, seeking to test the efficacy of a service provider’s messaging against that of competitors and against buyer requirements and expectations.

Six Factors causing this “State of Unsettlement”

So what has caused this change to a State of Unsettlement, amongst the service provider community in just 12 months? In short, we believe it has been a mix of six factor factors, namely:

  1. A rise in global economic uncertainty, exacerbated by the instability of the Brazilian, Russian and Chinese economies, record oil price lows, a volatile and unpredictable stock market globally and the creeping threat of deflation;
  2. The rise of new “born in the cloud” competitors, such as: Aason, Bluewolf, Equiniti and OneSource Virtual which can offer significantly more cost effective solutions and different delivery models;
  3. The increasingly viral adoption of Intelligent Automation in service delivery;
  4. A recognition that Digital is not just a supplemental technology spend to the legacy business, but a fundamental change in how the underlying business model operates (for clients and for service providers);
  5. The increased relevance and disruptive competitiveness of nimble mid-sized service providers (IT and business process) that can scale up and down aggressively to win deals, based on client needs and their own intentions to invest in the future model, such as EXL, Genpact, Hexaware and Virtusa;
  6. Increasing engagement with mid-market clients, which frequently have requirements as complex as the high-end, but cannot spend anything like the same amounts. Many of these clients will form the FORTUNE 500 of the future and most traditional service providers are simply not equipped to take these clients on profitably with their current delivery models.

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Posted in: Analytics and Big DataBusiness Process Outsourcing (BPO)Cognitive Computing

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The HfS 2016 Blueprint Research Agenda ...at your service

November 22, 2015 | Phil Fersht

2016 will mark our seventh year as an analyst firm and will be our most expansive as we tackle many emerging areas and industries.  Yes, we have come an awfully long way since the days people thought we "only covered BPO":

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The analyst industry's most ambitious 2016 research agenda tackles the continuum from legacy operations to the As-a-Service Enterprise across talent, technology and process

Earlier in 2014, we introduced to the world the concept of the As-a-Service Economy and how it is fundamentally impacting how business and IT services have to be fashioned, solutioned and delivered. Enterprise service buyers and providers have little choice but to evolve how they manage their services, or face extinction.

This means both parties need to make genuine investments in their underlying process architectures, reorient their talent capabilities and make some short-to-medium term sacrifices in their financial models to remain viable in the As-a-Service Economy. The same issues apply to sourcing advisors and analysts that face increasing irrelevance if they fail to adjust to the shifting demands of what it means to be an “As-a-Service Enterprise” in this new economy.

The legacy model of IT and business services sales and delivery that has dominated the industry for decades has rapidly become obsolete in our increasingly digital world, where speed, agility, flexibility and re-invention are no longer optional, but core characteristics for the success of any As-a-Service Enterprise.

For HfS, As-a-Service is about continuous progression, where enterprises do not pause at a status quo state. Instead they are continually exploring better ways to automate processes, access rapid meaningful data, and advance self-learning capabilities in a secure, trusted environment.

Our thinking about the Ideals of the As-a-Service Enterprise also has progressed this year. We now segment the ideals into Change Management Ideals and Solution Ideals that intermingle and build upon each other on the journey to the As-a-Service Enterprise. This journey will require significant change management, and through the course of 2015, we have seen encouraging examples of that throughout the industry, especially with efforts to simplify and automate increasingly unwieldy legacy operations and technology.

We could write and talk for hours about the unwillingness of enterprises to change the status quo to achieve better results. But ultimately it all boils down to the leadership of the enterprise having the appetite to go out and find a trusted partner that is motivated to share the risks of this transition within a financial model that works for all parties. Middle management will always resist anything that doesn’t pay them more, make them happier and more excited, or more motivated to perform. The only way forward to achieve genuine plug-and-play digital business solutions is for service providers and enterprises buyers to embrace real design thinking concepts and work together continuously in a much more collaborative and transparent fashion. This means they need to invest in talent, in training, in change fundamentals—and ultimately in solution fundamentals.

The Ideals of the As-a-Service Enterprise explained

In sharing our thinking on the Ideals of the As-a-Service Enterprise through countless client strategy sessions, industry-wide webinars and briefings this year, we have had the chance to test these Ideals with industry stakeholders to understand their relevance and practical applications.

What came out from these sessions was that the Ideals fell into two key themes: Change Management Ideals and Solution Ideals. In many cases enterprises approach these ideals sequentially.

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To move toward the As-a-Service Enterprise, it is beneficial to begin with a willingness to write off the legacy technology and operations and with that adopt Design Thinking as a way to look at business challenges and opportunities with a fresh perspective. Then an enterprise can orient governance and relationships toward building service solutions with the optimum capabilities,

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Posted in: Analytics and Big DataBusiness Process Outsourcing (BPO)Buyers' Sourcing Best Practices

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HfS brings O'Brien's brains on board

November 16, 2015 | Phil Fersht
Melissa O'Brien is Research Director, Contact Center and Omni-Channel Operations, HfS (Click for Bio)

Melissa O'Brien is Research Director, Contact Center and Omni-Channel Operations, HfS (Click for Bio)

Pretty much everything we cover at HfS has a contact center at the heart of the process, whether it's an insurance claim, a supplier inventory call, a sales inquiry, an analytics request, and so on....

So we realized it high time we actually brought on an analyst who has set up contact center operations around the world, lived and breathed the offshore experience, has intimate knowledge of the service providers, the technologies and the skills needed to make these things function effectively.  We also realized we needed that analyst to be expert at kick-boxing to keep us all in order.  So join me in welcoming a great talent to educate us all on the future of the contact center and omni-channel operations, Melissa O'Brien...

Welcome Melissa!  Can you share a little about your background and why you have chosen research as your career path? 

Thank you for the welcome, I am very excited to join the HfS team! I have been following contact center operations and customer experience as an analyst for the last four and a half years, and I previously worked within the BPO industry in various roles. I’ve been an implementation manager, designing and transitioning processes from onshore to offshore- managed client relationships, and have also developed and administered training to groups of new contact center employees and to the trainers themselves. When I got the opportunity to work in market research, I had found the perfect combination of continuing to work with clients on solving problems, but also getting the chance to do a lot of strategic thinking and writing about my domain. I really enjoy research because you’re always learning as the market is constantly changing and evolving – I love the challenge of always having to be that step ahead!

Why did you choose to join HfS… and why now?

I have been working in the contact center operations market for the past 10 years and my passion is understanding what makes great customer experiences. HfS’ focus on the As-a-Service Economy is at the heart of how the contact center is evolving today, and the way that companies are now looking at customer experience, which is a much more holistic and outside-in approach. Ambitious contact

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Posted in: Analytics and Big DataBusiness Process Outsourcing (BPO)Buyers' Sourcing Best Practices

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Meet General Gary

October 16, 2015 | Phil Fersht
Gary Novak, KPMG China

Gary Nowak (pictured right) is Partner for KPMG's Shared Services and Outsourcing Practice in China

How many consultants do you know who just give up their life of first class travel, champagne lunches, and arrival by helicopter to luxury golf courses to slum it in the back streets of Shanghai?

Yes folks, KPMG's Gary Nowak had it all . . . but his love of Yoga, meditation, and people-watching just got the better of him and off he went. So, without further ado, let's learn more about KPMG's Gary Nowak and what he's learned having lived in China the last few years . . .

Phil Fersht, CEO, HfS Research: So good evening, Gary Nowak. Thank you for spending some time today with HfS. I know we’ve met in the past, but I’d like for you to give a little introduction to our audience. Tell us a bit about yourself, your history in the industry, and how you’ve ended up leading a practice for KPMG in China.

Gary Nowak, Partner, KPMG China:

Sure. Thanks, Phil. I appreciate the invitation. I've been in China since January 2013. In the summer of 2012, I took a trip to China in connection with a client I had taken globally—to Eastern Europe, India, and eventually China. I was very impressed with China, specifically Dalian China, a city with a high concentration of outsourcing, located in Northern China. After that visit, I requested, through KPMG, to be sent to China, specifically Shanghai, because

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Posted in: Business Process Outsourcing (BPO)Sourcing Locations

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Hello As-a-Service Economy, goodbye Outsourcing, Part I

August 09, 2015 | Phil Fersht

As-a-ServiceWhen we coined the term "The As-a-Service Economy" a year ago (remember our famous Ten Tenets post), we never quite anticipated we were helping define the future model the services industry would adopt for business, technology and operational service delivery.

As-a-Service replaces Outsourcing

We've perennially debated the (toxic) term "outsourcing", long vilified as the substitution of onshore jobs with cheaper offshore people. The outsourcing community has continually struggled to find new defining terminology, as NASSCOM replaced "BPO" with "BPM" and the IAOP has refused to shift from the past, staying true to the O word as its core identity.

The reason why we struggled with our identity was because outsourcing, by and large, has really always been about people.  It's hard to change processes, drive common standards across clients, build a utility model that can be scaled and made cost-efficient, when you're really just moving work around the world with the goal of getting it done cheaper. And that's really been the story of outsourcing to-date - service providers battling it out, at varying levels of effectiveness, to deliver people-based services more productively, promising delights of delivery beyond merely doing the existing stuff significantly cheaper and (hopefully) a bit better.

But outsourcing hasn't failed. Only 13% of service buyers in our new Ideals of As-a-Service study believe there is no more value to be found in the current outsourcing model.  Outsourcing is the starting point towards driving out bloated labor costs, centralizing the delivery staff within a service provider, and creating some basic common standards across processes.  However, it's not the end-solution for ambitious firms, it's merely the start of the journey towards this future vision of "As-a-Service".

We also hear a lot of hype about Robotic Process Automation, which is another accelerator towards As-a-Service, but like outsourcing, RPA isn't necessarily the end-solution either  - many applications have a lifecycle and are replaced over time, and many of today's processes become obsolete as businesses evolve. RPA merely acts as a further conduit, coupled with outsourcing, to smooth the ultimate journey towards destination As-a-Service.

Defining the evolution to the As-a-Service Economy with Eight Ideals

The game-changer is centered on today's services work gradually becoming a genuine blending of people-plus-technology that helps us inch towards an ultimate destination of services value, accessible on-tap, empowering service buyers to focus on proactive value-identification with help from their service partners through meaningful and secure data, enabled by intelligent automation and digital tools... all made possible by smart people working together.

So let's examine the Eight Ideals of As-a-Service, into which we delve in-depth in our new defining report, "Beware of the Smoke: Your Platform is Burning", that canvasses the views, dynamics, aspirations and intended actions of 716 service industry stakeholders:

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The journey to As-a-Service is all about simplification

Business services, today, are one of speed to business impact. They are about simplification.  They are about removing the blockages and obstacles diluting this business impact.  Anything less is not taking advantage of the experience and capability that has been developed in the global services market, over the past three decades. In this time, enabling technologies, talent, sourcing operating models, and macro-economic trends, such as globalization of labor, high growth emerging markets, new business models and consumerization, enable service buyers, advisors, and service providers to engage increasingly in a more flexible and collaborative manner. The ambition is to achieve renewed business results with speed, quality, and effectiveness. When we get there, we will be in the As-a-Service Economy.

The transition to As-a-Service is all about simplification — removing unnecessary complexity, poor processes, and manual intervention to make way for a more nimble way of running a business. It is also about prioritizing where to focus investments to achieve maximum benefit and impact for the business from its operations.

The emerging As-a-Service Economy will be more agile and dynamic, featuring on-demand plug-and-play services in a one-to-many fashion targeted to impact what matters to consumers as well as businesses. The two are increasingly intertwined as consumer insights, decisions, and loyalty carry increasing weight on the success or failure of an enterprise in any industry.

The Bottom-line:  The As-a-Service Economy is a vision for the future, building on today's achievements

It's easy to deplore how poorly our business are run,  how dysfunctional are our processes, how badly integrated are our technologies, how reactively and transactionally our staff perform. But this is the evolution of business, this is how we got here today. When you talk to service buyers, they are unlikely to tell you their businesses are running worse every year. In fact, most have improved immensely over the last five years with improvements in global scale delivery, cloud computing etc.

Survival in today's global business environment, for most, is a marathon, not a sprint. Not every industry has been Uberized over-night - most are being disrupted with technology-driven business models that we can learn from, adapt, adjust and try to get ahead of. Most enterprises suffer from the same woes and face similar challenges to clear their path towards their desired As-a-Service Ideals.

The new challenge is to prioritize which Ideals really matter and how to work with the smart people and partners around us to get there. In subsequent posts to this theme, we will analyze our study findings further to understand the priorities, obstacles, expectations and anticipated dynamics to unravel how we will eventually arrive at the As-a-Service Economy, and what we can do as an industry to get there and prosper.

And Part II is now up - click here to read!

Please download a copy of our new Industry Report "Beware of the Smoke: Your Platform is Burning", authored by analysts Phil Fersht and Barbra McGann, that analyzes findings from 716 service industry stakeholders in our new Industry study that defines the future of services and the emergence of As-a-Service Economy. 

Posted in: 2015 As-a-Service StudyAnalytics and Big DataBusiness Process Outsourcing (BPO)

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Why Hillary could be the biggest friend of offshore and nearshore outsourcing

July 14, 2015 | Phil Fersht

The Uber HaterLike many of you out there, I was floored last night to see Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton openly attack the Sharing Economy in a speech outlining her economic theory.

Clearly taking a swipe at the likes of Uber and Airbnb Mrs Clinton states, “This on-demand or so-called gig economy is creating exciting opportunities and unleashing innovation. But it’s also raising hard questions about workplace protections and what a good job will look like in the future”. Clinton “Vows to crack down on employers who misclassify workers as independent contractors”, which she says is “wage theft”.  Along with globalization and automation, Clinton describes the "Sharing Economy" as “conspiring against sustainable wage growth”. The report says “she will argue that policy choices have contributed to the problem, and that she can fix it.”

So why does added protectionism of US workers help offshore and nearshore outsourcing?

While the open attack on innovative business models is in itself mind-boggling, the less obvious impact of her focus here is to discourage service providers and enterprises from hiring US talent to provide business support services. As service delivery becomes increasingly focused on higher value needs, such as organizational design, analytics modeling and supporting complex apps development across multiple environments, the opportunity for local US talent to be leveraged is huge.

In addition, the way in which new generation As-a-Service providers want to engage with talent needs to be more "As-a-Service" to be competitive. Virtual support models are becoming critical for BPaaS support functions where clients need quick, on-tap support, and - in many cases - the new generation of service provider isn't simply looking to stock up hoards of full time employees in a call center somewhere in the Midwest  - they are also seeking to engage talent which prefer a flexi-

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Posted in: Business Process Outsourcing (BPO)HfSResearch.com HomepageHR Strategy

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Infosys, HCL, TCS, and Tech Mahindra make the first Engineering Services Winners Circle

July 07, 2015 | Phil Fersht

If there's one market people have been raving about for the past decade - and still are - but has never quite taken off as quickly as many have predicted, it's the world of engineering services outsourcing.

This market is all about using third parties in the design, analysis, manufacture and augmentation of products.  And in today's world of global labor, the global marketplace, emerging technologies, smarter global sourcing models and the Internet of Things, the potential to embrace outsourcing expertise to bring products to market smarter, faster and cheaper has never been so exciting.

Engineering services has a huge market potential, but - somehow - engineering service providers have had limited success in transforming this potential into the actual outsourcing engagements. Now things are changing, and we believe that engineering services is evolving from a niche offering to the mainstream.  So without further ado, let's hear from HfS Research Director, Pareekh Jain, on the excellent research he's completed that delved deep this this market:

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Pareekh, how do you see this market evolving and what are the key drivers for engineering services?

Engineering services outsourcing, over the last decade, has evolved from simple drawing and drafting to complex end-to-end product design. Now an enterprise which wants to enter a new market segment can partner with some leading engineering service providers, that can not only deliver complete new product design but that can even collaborate with manufacturing partners for additional benefits. Some engineering service providers are also collaborating on high-end R&D

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Posted in: Business Process Outsourcing (BPO)Design ThinkingHfS Blueprint Results

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